Vol. III No. 1 (2025): Strategic Perspectives, Winter 2025
The Hypersonic Missile Race: An Analysis of Global Dynamics and South Asian Strategic Stability
Ghazala Yasmin Jalil and Muskan Moazzam
Published December 30, 2025
Abstract
Hypersonic weapons represent a new genre of weapons that are significant because of their ability to maneuver once launched, their hypersonic speed, and the capacity to penetrate ballistic missile defense (BMD) systems. The paper examines the implications of the hypersonic missile race in the global and regional context using a realist theoretical framework centered on the security dilemma and arms racing. The main findings suggest that hypersonic weapons are destabilizing because they compress decision windows, complicate deterrence strategies, and escalate the risk of an arms race. However, at the global level, the effectiveness of hypersonic weapons is likely to differ across various actors. At the regional level, hypersonic weapons would be far more destabilizing due to proximity and shorter decision timelines. Furthermore, it would increase the risk of an Indian preemptive strike and foster a false sense of confidence among decision-makers that hypersonic missiles could execute a successful counterforce strike, while existing BMD systems would intercept any Pakistani counterstrike. This dynamic significantly undermines the established deterrence relationship. Furthermore, the deployment of hypersonic weapons would exacerbate the regional security dilemma; as India enhances its strike capabilities, Pakistan would feel compelled to pursue counter-hypersonic technologies and adjust its doctrinal posture to ensure survival, inadvertently heightening suspicion and instability. It concludes that there is a need for mechanisms to counter destabilizing effect of hypersonic weapons at global and regional levels.
Key Words
Hypersonic Missiles, Deterrence, South Asia, Strategic Stability, Ballistic Missile Defence, Arms Race, Security Dilemma.